Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 13.619532 15.880696 18.343011 21.216029 24.468371 28.027895 32.210189
2024-12-22 9.535271 12.474297 15.990485 20.473037 25.997972 32.544965 40.846211
2024-12-29 7.608419 10.976303 15.335445 21.308529 29.185339 39.112848 52.449757
2025-01-05 6.115030 9.628999 14.504253 21.613962 31.540779 44.708115 63.251247
2025-01-12 4.959357 8.464888 13.645237 21.631282 33.353277 49.601367 73.417145
2025-01-19 4.099484 7.541959 12.932679 21.670174 35.077330 54.391181 83.697354
2025-01-26 3.752047 7.351143 13.264912 23.251167 39.132970 62.724857 99.512777
2025-02-02 3.356939 6.995236 13.258914 24.258985 42.355216 70.019613 114.263714
2025-02-09 3.010836 6.655724 13.214656 25.164061 45.447725 77.283498 129.384908
2025-02-16 2.585060 6.080887 12.668319 25.131618 46.972803 82.175136 141.128398
2025-02-23 2.152192 5.403086 11.828622 24.464482 47.333565 85.185915 150.045625
2025-03-02 1.762360 4.732036 10.895114 23.496120 47.046722 87.064081 157.189639
2025-03-09 1.527984 4.368179 10.533758 23.595003 48.722706 92.432866 170.569170
2025-03-16 1.286566 3.934742 9.965374 23.225964 49.516914 96.369970 181.849420
2025-03-23 1.192081 3.846259 10.122037 24.326814 53.149317 105.470495 202.413599
2025-03-30 1.060587 3.629376 9.956822 24.731976 55.462287 112.349430 219.486440
2025-04-06 0.924663 3.366282 9.642029 24.774383 57.051794 117.999891 234.687917
2025-04-13 0.808277 3.129367 9.350382 24.826475 58.650010 123.742240 250.331301
2025-04-20 0.789914 3.189140 9.803753 26.606064 63.925819 136.652305 279.550997
2025-04-27 0.741288 3.140526 9.971660 27.738738 67.924560 147.342837 305.191196
2025-05-04 0.691425 3.075564 10.086493 28.754704 71.743342 157.881024 331.019941
2025-05-11 0.607069 2.867264 9.780501 28.718479 73.277144 164.042220 348.934705
2025-05-18 0.510598 2.583811 9.215149 27.970033 73.170109 166.936663 360.777749